Self-updating Elo + Poisson Monte Carlo · 49,000 internationals since 1872 · club league predictor →
connecting…
🏴 It's Coming Home mode is ON. England's numbers now include a +12% optimism
adjustment, lovingly calibrated to Dominic's confidence. This is patriotism, not statistics —
the details panels, tweets and track record still use the real model numbers.
Live now — in-game win probability
Next up — model picks
Who wins the World Cup? — 10,000 tournament simulations, re-run on every result
How to read a prediction. The bar shows each outcome's probability —
win, draw, or win. The "most likely score" is the single most probable exact scoreline.
These can disagree: a model can say South Korea 45% to win yet call 1–1 the likeliest
score, because 1–1 is the biggest single result while South Korea's many winning scores
(1–0, 2–1, 2–0…) add up to more. The bar answers "who wins?"; the score answers "what's the
single most likely final score?". The 🌡 💤 ✈️ badges mark heat, rest and travel adjustments.
🏆 The Bracket — projected path to the World Cup
Each slot shows the team most likely to be there, with their probability from 10,000 simulations.
Click any team to light up their full projected path to the trophy. Once a knockout match is played, its slot is locked in.
>75% (near-lock)
50–75% (favourite)
25–50%
<25% (open)
played
Model track record — graded against every finished match, before kickoff
Any-matchup predictor — neutral venue, live-updated Elo
vs
Team data
Likely scorelines
How this works
PitchProb predicts FIFA World Cup 2026 matches with live win probabilities, most-likely scorelines,
group qualification odds and championship chances for all 48 teams — USA, Mexico, Canada hosts —
updated every minute during the tournament, with a public track record of every prediction.